The $TRUMP token rose from around $7 on 18 January to a high of nearly $75 a day later before falling back quite sharply.

Following the sudden increase in value of the tokens, there are concerns it could provide a springboard for other celebrities to launch their own cryptocurrencies. As we have highlighted previously, investors would be right to be wary, with plenty of examples of such investments going into the red soon after an initial boom in price.

It is not just the risk of a fast fall in value that UK investors should be mindful of. The temptation to jump into crypto transactions, in particular newly launched coins, can make the tracking and reporting of such investments difficult. However, any taxpayers seeking sympathy from HMRC are likely to be given short shrift should they claim difficulty in assessing their tax position.

HMRC’s view is likely to be that if a taxpayer chooses to invest in cryptocurrencies, then they are doing so in the knowledge that this can be a complex area, and they should be taking reasonable steps to make sure any associated tax liability is declared and paid.

Taking its cue from the government, we could see HMRC take an even firmer stance with taxpayers as they seek to recover more funds for the Treasury. The current 2024/25 tax year will be the first in which taxpayers have to declare crypto disposals separately on their tax returns and many more taxpayers will be required to report their crypto transactions to HMRC for the current tax year.

Most cryptocurrency transactions undertaken by UK taxpayers are subject to capital gains tax (CGT), rather than income tax. In the past, the majority of UK individuals investing into cryptocurrencies will not have had to declare their transactions to HMRC provided any capital gains were lower than the CGT annual exemption.

The CGT annual exemption has fallen dramatically following changes announced in 2022, from £12,300 per year for individuals to just £3,000. With the Financial Conduct Authority estimating that 12% of the UK’s adult population now own some form of cryptocurrency, we could see a surge in individuals having to report and pay CGT.

That could mean more individuals registering for self-assessment, placing a heavier burden on HMRC resources for relatively low levels of tax. There is however a different route that some may choose to explore, using HMRC’s ‘real time’ CGT service, but advisers cannot use this service. Gains made in the current tax year will need to be reported by 31 December 2025 and the associated tax must be paid by 31 January 2026.

The days of crypto investors relying on the safety net of the CGT annual exemption are largely over and many will be met with a hard landing if they do not keep detailed records as they go along.

Trump’s return will transform US domestic policy and reverberate through the international system by up-ending trade, investment, and geopolitical risk patterns. These changes will affect private capital investors, including those operating in small-state international finance centres (IFCs), who must gauge their response.

They also provide the headline for five significant trends — Trump, Tariffs, Tax, Tech, and Trade – poised to take their place at the centre of the global investment stage through 2025 and beyond.

Trump: ‘America First’ And The Reconfiguring of Global Risk

The return of Donald Trump to the Presidency will herald a transformative pivot to a shifted global environment, now more nationalistic and protectionist. Trump’s “America First” agenda – built upon the principles of rewriting trade deals, breaking away from international accords and placing U.S. interests ahead of multilateralism – will bring geopolitical risks and opportunities back to the forefront of the 2025 agenda.

Trump’s presidency will make for a choppier investment environment for private capital investors. In his first term, we witnessed a transactional model of global relations manifested in trade wars, diplomatic tensions and bouts of financial volatility. If, in 2025, his policies are still focused on limiting foreign competition and combating global interdependence, investors should remain on guard for ripple effects.

On the upside, this political shift might be a boon for small-state IFCs. Countries with favourable tax policies, regulatory flexibility, and a track record of attracting capital in times of political instability will become ever more attractive to investors seeking safe harbours or alternative pathways into markets that are heavily impacted by shifts in U.S. policy.

Tariffs: We Are Still In The Age of Protectionism And Supply Chain Shocks

One of Trump’s most consequential legacies from his first term was his aggressive push to raise tariffs, including in his trade war with China. When he returns to office in 2025, tariffs will likely remain a significant tool of U.S. foreign policy. The immediate fallout will wash through international commerce, spanning matters as diverse as EVs, cell phones and agriculture, as Trump pursues more protectionist policies while limiting American reliance on foreign suppliers.

These developments will be a double-edged sword for small-state IFCs. Tariffs can disrupt global supply chains, rendering certain regions or industries less competitive and reorienting trade patterns. They can also boost inflation and prices in the short term, negatively impacting the cost of living. Still, investors could see new opportunities in jurisdictions playing a role as alternative manufacturing hubs or trade gateways. If manufacturing relocates, the investment that supports it will flow to the U.S., potentially via IFC conduits. Southeast Asian or African countries might also benefit as American companies seek to lessen their exposure to steep Chinese tariffs.

However, the spillover effects of tariffs – especially if they’re directed at a vital sector, like technology – could include market turbulence and price hikes. Private capital investors must brace for supply chain disruptions in sectors reliant on Chinese or other global suppliers and diversify their portfolios to minimise the fallout. Companies examining ways to move production away from tariff-heavy markets for their cost-effectiveness and efficiency will be in demand. At the same time, small-state IFCs with strong capital management and deployment capabilities can play a key role in meeting the growing demand for new investment capital flows as production shifts to new locations.

Tax: The New Global Tax Order And Its Impact On Investment Flows

Seismic change is underway on the global tax front, and Trump’s return will almost certainly challenge this process. Although the OECD’s promotion of a global minimum tax rate of 15% has been a strong theme over the last several years, Trump’s administration will likely re-examine the subject, particularly as he strives to keep U.S. businesses competitive internationally through a two-tier corporation tax system. Domestic ‘Made in America’ firms could benefit from a 15% CIT whilst foreign players may still have to bear the current 21% rate.

For small-state IFCs, Trump’s return may elevate interest in jurisdictions that offer favourable tax regimes for multinational corporations, low or no tax rates on capital gains, and/or more benign tax-neutral regimes. Small-state IFCs are well placed to offer both a capital-friendly tax environment and a robust and rich financial infrastructure to attract and channel capital flows from investors.

But Trump’s approach also risks forcing the U.S. into renegotiating tax treaties and pursuing more aggressive tax policies domestically. The great unknown is how markets will react to a perpetuation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and a raft of new tax-cutting measures, adding to the steep tax cuts from the first Trump administration due to run out in 2025.

Much of the cuts, at least initially, will be funded by increased borrowing. Will the bond markets be prepared to bankroll the additional borrowing needed, given that the U.S. debt servicing is already set to exceed 6% of GDP? Interest payments will exceed military spending for the first time in U.S. history, and this will surely be a test for the mighty dollar.

Tech-tonics: Jump-starting Investment In Technology Will Raise Geopolitical Friction

With technology increasingly shaping the global economy, a China vs U.S. tech standoff will almost surely speed up the trend toward a technological decoupling of the two major global economies, one that will probably be most pronounced for China. The technological ‘Cold War’ that started during Trump’s first term — focused on AI, 5G and semiconductors — will continue through 2025, altering the flow of global investment and the nature of innovation ecosystems.

The changes could create a unique opportunity for private investors to ride the tech-driven growth wave, especially in the future mega-sectors such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotech and its supporting infrastructure. The geopolitical and market risks of tech investments will also increase. Corporate adoption still lags personal consumption (75% of all ChatGPT subscribers are personal) and investment to date of $1.5trn shows lots of promise but little by way of tangible near-term profits. AI remains an exciting but nascent and rapidly evolving technology that still has, for many, to prove its real-world impact.

Among the things to keep an eye on will be the rise of tech startups and venture capital in smaller-state IFCs. A proactive approach by jurisdictions such as Singapore and the Cayman Islands has made them attractive destinations for fintech, blockchain and other technologies. These smaller centres could strengthen their positions as key players in the global tech investment firmament amid geopolitical tensions.

Trade: Increasingly Regional, National And Protectionist

Global trade winds will blow differently in 2025, beset as they are by fractured trading blocs and regional alignments. Bilateral trade deals – instead of multilateral agreements – may take precedence, increasing export tensions between the West and other powers, including China and Russia. In this environment, the future of the WTO is not assured.

Disruption may open new avenues for small-state IFCs to play an intermediation role in leveraging regional trade agreements. Traditional financial systems might find it challenging to meet the needs of the new economy. The rise of digital trading hubs in smaller IFCs will be a boon for investors as these hubs are gaining traction in regions such as southeast ASIA, Africa and the Middle East, where emerging markets are making inroads into conventional trade routes.

2025 will also see further evolution in trade finance. The shift towards digitised trade and persistent political friction will drive demand for more secure, transparent trade finance solutions, which small-state IFCs are well-placed to offer. The remainder of this decade will be critical for the embedding and establishment of all things crypto, with the tailwinds of a supportive U.S. president and a more benign regulatory environment. Understanding how these new trade routes and financial instruments will develop will be a key to accessing growth areas in an increasingly fragmented global marketplace for private capital investors.

Wrap-Up: The Times They Are A-Changin’

2025 will be a year of significant change in global events, trade and investment. The re-entry of Donald Trump into the White House will bring back his brand of nationalism, protectionism and a more transactional approach to foreign relations, all of which will have significant implications for the shape of investment markets. Private capital investors, including those operating through small-state IFCs, will have to alter their strategies in a world redefined by geopolitical risk, technological disruption, and new tax and trade paradigms.

Small-state IFCs offer a unique blend of regulatory flexibility, tax advantages, relative political stability, and investment potential. These make them an attractive option for investors looking for alternatives to larger, more volatile markets. Still, private capital investors will need to know how to prosper in an altered world of Trump, Tariffs, Tax, ‘Tech-tonics’ and Trade.

Adaptability, foresight and strategic diversification will be the keys to success in 2025.

By Geoff Cook, chair of Mourant Consulting

Effective immediately, Mike Hankin (pictured right) and Logie Fitzwilliams (pictured left) will share chief executive responsibilities.

Hankin has served as the sole CEO and president since the firm became private and independent in 1998. Logie Fitzwilliams started with Brown Advisory in 2003, and has most recently served as the head of international business and global head of sales.

Together, the firm’s independent board of directors and Hankin decided that a Co-CEO structure would be the best design to provide the leadership needed to meet the growing needs of the firm’s clients, colleagues and shareholders.

As a team, Hankin and Fitzwilliams, who have worked closely together for the last 15 years, will deepen the firm’s partnership and collaborative culture to drive results for all stakeholders. This evolution represents the most significant change in Brown Advisory’s leadership since the firm adopted its current private, independent structure in 1998.

As Co-CEOs – and Co-Presidents – they both will serve on, and report to, the board that governs the firm.

Hankin said: “I could not be more excited about this natural next step in the leadership of the firm. In the building of a global investment team and business to complement what we have been cultivating in the US, Logie has led with the qualities that we think make him the ideal person to share responsibility for leadership of the entire firm.

“He understands that to be truly client first, we need to be obsessively focused on listening to our clients in the U.S. and around the world. He understands that to build successful teams, we need to also listen to our colleagues. We need to make sure that our colleagues have the resources and training necessary to live up to our clients’ expectations.”

He added, “Importantly, Logie and I share the existential commitment to Brown Advisory remaining a private and independent firm. Our ownership structure – where every single colleague owns equity in the firm alongside an important set of outside shareholders who provide critical advice and support – will remain the same; it is the structural backbone to being the client-first firm we aspire to be over generations.”

Fitzwilliams said: “It is a tremendous honor to join Mike in the leadership of Brown Advisory. Throughout my 22 years at the firm, I have been privileged to work with him closely and we have built a deep relationship that will serve as the foundation for our partnership as Co-CEOs. Most importantly, from the outset we have had a shared focus on investing for, advising, and serving our clients at the highest
possible level, and a common commitment to the future of Brown Advisory as a private, independent, entrepreneurial and nimble business.”

Bob Flanagan, lead director of the Brown Advisory Board, said: “The process and thinking behind this decision was extensive, productive and always forward looking. We considered many options and scenarios to ensure that Brown Advisory had the best leadership in place for the present and future. Each of us believe that the firm, its clients and its colleagues will be best served with Mike and Logie acting as CEOs,
together.”

Bea Hollond, director and chair of the firm’s International Advisory Board added: “Being based in the U.K., I have had the direct opportunity to work with and advise Logie on the firm’s international business strategy. I have seen first-hand the incredible impact he has made for Brown Advisory and its clients. I know the Directors all share my excitement in welcoming Logie to the Board, and to seeing Mike and Logie work together as a team.”

Under Hankin’s leadership, the firm has grown from overseeing client assets of $2bn in 1998 to now almost $170bn– representing an annualized growth rate of 17%. Today, the firm’s clients are served by nearly 1,000 colleagues located in 14 offices across the United States, a significant office in London and strategic bases in Frankfurt, Singapore, and Tokyo.

The firm’s clients—a collection of individuals, families, nonprofits, charities, institutions and financial intermediaries—are located in 51 countries and in every U.S. state. Brown Advisory also manages fund platforms – private funds, mutual funds and now ETFs – in the U.S., as well as platforms outside of the U.S. in Ireland, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands.

Quintin Ings-Chambers will take over as head of the international business. He joined Brown Advisory in 2012 as Head of the firm’s International Private Client and Charity business. He has over 25 years of investment industry experience. Prior to joining Brown Advisory, he served as an Investment Director at SG Hambros and as a Director in the private client and charity group of Baring Asset Management.

He will report into Logie Fitzwilliams.

In a statement today (8 January) Henley said Singapore reclaims its crown as the most powerful passport in the world with visa-free access to 195 out of 227 destinations worldwide, leaving Japan in the runner-up spot with a score of 193 but still ahead of the rest after it regained visa-free access to neighbouring China for the first time since the Covid lockdowns.

Several EU member states — France, Germany, Italy, and Spain — drop two places in the ranking to 3rd position, and are joined by Finland and South Korea, which each lost a place over the past 12 months and now have access to 192 destinations with no prior visa required.

A seven-nation EU cohort, all with visa-free access to 191 destinations — Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden — share 4th place, while five countries — Belgium, New Zealand, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK — come in 5th with 190 visa-free destinations.

On the other end of the mobility spectrum, Afghanistan, unsurprisingly, remains firmly entrenched at the bottom of the Henley Passport Index, having lost visa-free access to a further two destinations over the past year, creating the largest mobility gap in the index’s 19-year history, with Singaporeans able to travel to 169 more destinations visa-free than Afghan passport holders.

Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, chairman of international investment migration advisory firm Henley & Partners and the inventor of the passport index concept, said: “The very notion of citizenship and its birthright lottery needs a fundamental rethink as temperatures rise, natural disasters become more frequent and severe, displacing communities and rendering their environments uninhabitable.

“Simultaneously, political instability and armed conflicts in various regions force countless people to flee their homes in search of safety and refuge. The need to introduce Free Global Cities to harness the untapped potential of displaced people and other migrants, transforming them from victims of circumstance into architects of their own futures has never been more pressing or apparent”.

The rest of the index’s Top 10 is largely dominated by European countries, except for Australia (6th place with 189 destinations), Canada (7th place with 188 destinations), the US (9th place with 186 destinations), and the UAE, the first and only Arab state to ever make it into the upper echelons of the rankings.

The UAE is one of the biggest climbers on the index over the past decade, having secured access to an additional 72 destinations since 2015, enabling it to climb 32 places to 10th spot with visa-free access to 185 destinations worldwide.

US and UK passports among the biggest fallers

Only 22 of the world’s 199 passports have fallen down the Henley Passport Index ranking over the past decade. Surprisingly, the US is the second-biggest faller between 2015 and 2025 after Venezuela, plummeting seven places from 2nd to its current 9th position.

Vanuatu is the third-biggest faller, losing six places from 48th to 54th position, followed by the British passport, which was top of the index in 2015 but now sits in 5th place. Completing the Top 5 losers list is Canada, which dropped three ranks over the past decade from 4th to its current 7th place.

In contrast, China is among the biggest climbers over the past decade, ascending from 94th place in 2015 to 60th in 2025, with its visa-free score increasing by 40 destinations in that time. And in terms of its openness to other nations, China has also risen on the Henley Openness Index, which ranks all 199 countries and territories worldwide according to the number of nationalities they permit entry to without a prior visa.

China granted visa-free access to a further 29 countries over the past year alone, and now sits in 80th position, granting visa-free entry to a total of 58 nations as the new year commences, compared to its rival America, which ranks 84th and allows just 46 other countries access without a prior visa.

Commenting in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2025 Q1, released today alongside the latest Henley Passport Index, Annie Pforzheimer, senior associate at Washington thinktank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the continued comparative decline of the US in terms of global mobility is no surprise: “Even before the advent of a second Trump presidency, American political trends had become notably inward-looking and isolationist. Even though US economic health relies heavily on immigration, tourism, and trade, voters during the 2024 presidential campaign were fed a narrative that America can (and should) stand alone.

“Ultimately, if tariffs and deportations are the Trump administration’s default policy tools, not only will the US continue to decline on the mobility index on a comparative basis, but it will probably do so in absolute terms as well. This trend in tandem with China’s greater openness will likely give rise to Asia’s greater soft power dominance worldwide.”

Dr. Tim Klatte, a partner in Grant Thornton China and an adjunct professor at Shanghai New York University and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, agrees, and adds that the upcoming second inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump will mark a turning point in US–China economic relations and, by extension, for the world economy. “The Trump-era trade wars will not only be viewed as bilateral disputes — they will serve as transformative events for the global economy.

“Disrupting trade flows, raising costs, and sowing uncertainty will require businesses, governments, and international institutions to adapt to a new reality. This strategy raises serious concerns about the fragmentation of the global economy and the potential for increased geopolitical tensions.

“Trump has not been shy about his foreign policy strategies, from Canada to China, and his direct approach will continue to present doubts in the confidence of the USA’s passport power moving forward.”

Americans are top applicants for second citizenships

US nationals currently constitute the single largest cohort of applicants for alternative residence and citizenship, accounting for a staggering 21% of all investment migration program applications received by Henley & Partners in 2024.

CEO Dr. Juerg Steffen says the firm has more American clients than the next four biggest nationalities — Turkish, Filipino, Indian, and Brits — combined. “Faced with unprecedented volatility, investors and wealthy families are adopting a strategy of geopolitical arbitrage to acquire additional residence and/or citizenship options to hedge against jurisdictional risk and leverage the differences in legal, economic, political, and social conditions across countries to optimize their personal, financial, and lifestyle outcomes.”

Looking ahead to 2025, projections by Henley & Partners and New World Wealth indicate an even greater surge in millionaire migration worldwide, with 142,000 high-net-worth individuals with liquid investable wealth of USD 1 million or more expected to relocate and seek new horizons.

Dr. Steffen said: “this represents the most significant wealth migration wave ever documented and reflects fundamental changes in how affluent individuals are mitigating risks and creating opportunities in an increasingly unstable and polarized world”.

Political risk insurance

Commenting in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2025 Q1, Prof. Peter J. Spiro of Temple University Law School in Philadelphia and a leading expert on dual citizenship said the Trump reprise magnifies another element of value for alternative residence or citizenship rights: political risk insurance.

“This time around, the stakes are higher. During the first Trump administration, legacy political guardrails were still in place. Now, many are gone. There is a sense that what Trump wants, Trump will be able to get. His political agenda is mercurial, to say the least, and political uncertainty is the result. Americans can no longer take stability for granted. Trump can be fickle with outsiders, too.

“It is almost certain that he will resurrect the infamous “travel ban”, which he put in place a week after he first took office, early in the new administration. The ban precluded targeted nationals from securing permanent residence in the USA as well as a range of temporary-stay visas. But the bans did not apply to citizens of targeted states if they held an additional citizenship of a non-targeted state. The carve-out for dual citizens made sense.”

Visa racism: Africans twice as likely to be rejected for Schengen visas

In exclusive new research conducted for Henley & Partners and published in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2025 Q1, Prof. Mehari Taddele Maru of the School of Transnational Governance and the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute and of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, compared Schengen visa rejection rates for African applicants to those from other regions.

“My latest research compares the 10 countries facing the highest Schengen visa rejection rates and reveals that while globally only one in six applications is rejected, one in two African applicants is rejected. In 2023, African countries accounted for just 2.8% of global applications out of a total of over 10 million worldwide, yet half of their applications were rejected. Even more concerning is that this trend has worsened over the past decade, with rejection rates more than doubling during this period.”

The research shows that among the top 10 countries facing the highest Schengen visa rejection rates, six are in Africa. Comoros fares the worst with a 61.3% rejection rate, followed by Guinea-Bissau at 51%, Ghana at 47.5%, Mali at 46.1%, Sudan at 42.3%, and Senegal at 41.2%. Three Asian countries and a European country complete the most-rejected list: Pakistan with 49.6%, Syria with 46%, and Bangladesh with 43.3%. The contrast becomes particularly stark when comparing Africa with Asia and global rates. Despite African countries submitting only half as many applications as Asian countries, African applicants were twice as likely to be rejected.

Prof. Maru said this pattern suggests that the variation in rejection rates between regions and nationalities extends beyond purely economic factors. “This growing disparity in visa rejection rates contributes to a broader pattern of global mobility inequality. As a result, African citizens find themselves at the bottom of the mobility ladder, which significantly limits their access to international economic opportunities. In short, the poorest individuals face the greatest difficulties when seeking to travel or move to more prosperous countries. I would argue that weak economies and discriminatory policies based on identity and culture explain the high rate of rejection for African Schengen visa applicants.”

Key travel trends in 2025: ETA and ETIAS

The world of travel is preparing itself for a digital overhaul in 2025. This year marks a pivotal uplift in digital border control, from the UK’s ETA expansions to the long-anticipated European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS). The UK has been rolling out its ETA system in phases. Initially open to Gulf Cooperation Council nationals in February 2024, the scheme extends to eligible non-European travelers this month (January 2025), including six million citizens from Australia, Canada, and the US. Eligible Europeans can apply from 5 March 2025 and will need an ETA to travel to the UK from 2 April 2025.

Similarly, Europe’s ETIAS, which has been delayed multiple times, is now expected to commence in May 2025. Those with a valid ETIAS authorization can enter 30 European countries as often as they want for short-term stays, normally for up to 90 days in any 180-day period.

Nick Careen, senior vice president, operation, safety and security at IATA, said the organization and its members are currently trialing a pioneering project to deliver a fully digital air travel experience. “The transition to digital travel is more than just a technological upgrade — it’s a paradigm shift. By leveraging digital identity and biometrics, the aviation industry can deliver a level of efficiency and personalization that was previously unimaginable. But the impact goes beyond airports. A seamless travel experience could strengthen global connectivity, boost tourism, and support economic growth.”

Daniel Cavey, who has significant experience working with complex structures spanning multiple jurisdictions including Switzerland, Cayman and the US, and Debbie Donaldson, who has a particular focus on supporting the objectives of high net worth Middle Eastern families, have both been promoted to senior manager.

In addition, Marta Latek, who provides a critical role as part of the team responsible for the day-to-day administration of one of the firm’s largest clients, has been promoted to a next level administrator, and Jack Rondel, who provides support for multiple clients, becomes an administrator.

Effective from 1 January 2025, the promotions recognise the achievements and contribution of these team members to the business over the past year, whilst also evidencing Crestbridge FOS’ ongoing commitment to supporting professional development and nurturing talent.

Heather Tibbo, chief executive, Crestbridge FOS, said: “Supporting the professional ambitions of our people and giving them the opportunity to thrive is something that is absolutely embedded in our culture as an independent and privately-owned business, and with that in mind it’s wonderful to see these members of our team developing with the business and receiving the recognition they deserve.

“2024 has been another busy year in our journey as a firm, and it is testament to the shared contribution of our whole team that we are in such a strong position as we look forward to another exciting year of growth and evolution in 2025.”