He will support the company’s expansion and growth across all GSB operations. He has previously held roles senior roles at The Fry Group and global financial services firm Sanlam.

At the Fry Group Johnson served as global head of operations. With teams across the UK, Europe, Middle East and Asia, he was accountable for driving the evolution and integration of a multi-service, multi-jurisdiction proposition.

At Sanlam, he was head of proposition in the wealth division, where he led the design and delivery of the service proposition and managed teams across front and back-office.

He has led several projects to deliver an evolving technology, process and system automation and client experience.

Ross Whatnall, founding partner of GSB said: “We are delighted to welcome Hugh to the GSB team. His experience in delivering client-focused solutions is exceptional. Having re-vamped service propositions through and created initiatives to simplify the advice process, we’re excited to build further on GSB’s valued service offering.”

Johnson’s hire comes after the double appointment of Paul Waterman and Craig Holding who joined GSB’s Wealth division based in Dubai late last year.

Financial services group GSB consists of GSB Wealth, GSB Private and GSB Capital

However, it is facts that will help guide investment decisions around the elections and historical data that will guide our understanding of market behaviour.

But it’s very important to note just how limited that data is. Since 1927, there have only been 24 presidential elections. In the world of statistical analysis, that is hardly sufficient to draw significant conclusions. Hence, we need to recognise the tenuous nature of that data. However, the historical data do guide us and are certainly more fact-based than simply our convictions.

The markets are non-partisan (in the short to medium term)

Given how different fiscal policy (around taxes and spending especially) is between Democrats and Republicans, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to draw conclusions about what markets will do under different regimes. I have known people who wanted to sell all their stocks and leave the US when Barack Obama became president. They were certain the sky was falling and everything would collapse.

Well, in terms of market performance, that did not happen. As presented by Fidelity Investments, Strategas Research partners have provided the annual S&P 500 performance from 1933 to 2022 (excluding 2001-2002 when a Senator changed parties).

Based on this, the market has averaged positive returns under every partisan combination. That shouldn’t be surprising because in general, markets spend more time going up than down so we shouldn’t make too much of the influence of politicians on market returns in the short to medium terms (1 to 4 years). If anything, markets do best when there’s a divided executive and legislative branches such that it’s difficult for one party to enact their preferred policies.

But in the near term, markets may be impacted by the results.

By near term I mean the weeks leading up to and following the elections. For instance, since the assassination attempt on Trump in July, US equities have continued to rally, but for the first time in a good long while, value stocks and equally weighted ETFs (where each stock receives the same allocation as opposed to the normal market cap weighted where the largest stocks by market cap receive the largest allocation), have been outperforming the S&P 500 (a market cap weighted index).

The graph below shows where the equally weighed ETF (RSP) have outperformed since the 13th of July through 13th of October.
In July, markets began pricing in a Trump victory with expectations of higher tariffs which in principle would benefit smaller, more domestically oriented companies rather than the larger.

Note the spike on the Invesco S&P500 Equal Weight ETF, RSP around the 13th of July. The outperformance since then against the market cap weighted iShares S&P 500 Core is significant because the Equal Weight ETF has been underperforming for years.

The reasons for this can be many and not some not always apparent. The US economic picture has held steady in the face of potentially rising unemployment and a rebound in inflation, and the Fed has begun to cut rates. Greater clarity on a strong domestic economy benefits RSP.

However, the timing does not appear to be happenstance.

If Trump wins the election and even more so if Republicans take control of congress, markets are expecting tariffs, rising inflation, a weakening of the dollar and a rise in bond yields. Even if these occurrences do not happen, in the very near term, markets will likely behave as if they will happen, until proven otherwise.

This leads us to perhaps the most important guideline for investors around elections.

Know your time horizon and invest/trade accordingly

For long-term investors like advice and wealth clients, speculating on short term gyrations around the elections is likely not a trade that adds value.

It would be better to ignore the noise and focus on things which matter outside the time frame of a few weeks – fiscal policy that actually gets enacted, inflation, central bank policy, unemployment, earnings, private spending in fixed investments, durable goods and business equipment.

All of these are more meaningful in the medium to long term, but none of them will be evident before the 5th of November nor in the weeks following the election.

It’s best to sit tight through the elections, make no changes, wait and watch.

By Vince Truong, Partner at GSB Wealth

The partnership will aim to empower female entrepreneurs and business leaders through financial wellness, as well as provide access to expert-led workshops, panels, and mentorship that will help Mumble’s members secure their financial futures.

At the heart of this partnership is the Women Financial Wellness Project, which will offer a series of free workshops designed to equip Mumble’s members with financial skills and resources. Each workshop will cover vital topics such as budgeting, investment strategies, cash flow management, and long-term financial planning.

Moreover, these sessions will be led by industry experts such as GSB who understand and support the unique challenges faced by female entrepreneurs. Their insights will provide invaluable guidance, allowing participants to make informed financial decisions that can significantly impact the trajectory of their businesses.

Alison Whatnall, founder and chief operating officer at GSB, said: “Empowering women with financial literacy is not just about teaching them to manage money; it’s about giving them the tools to shape their futures, make informed decisions, and achieve their dreams. That’s why, we at GSB are so incredibly excited to partner with the inspirational women of the Mumble Forum, so we can play a part in their unique journeys.

“As a B Corp, organisation, GSB’s focus on knowledge sharing and community engagement underscores the importance of social responsibility in business. This collaboration not only enhances the financial capabilities of women but also contributes to a more equitable society – together, the Mumble Forum & GSB can achieve great things.”

Monique Hodgson (pictured), founder and CEO at Mumble Forum, added: “Financial health is a crucial pillar for any business, yet female-led enterprises often face unique challenges when it comes to financial management and access to resources. According to recent studies, women are significantly underrepresented in investment and financial advisory spaces, leading to gaps in knowledge and support. This partnership between Mumble Forum and GSB seeks to address these disparities head-on.

“By joining forces, we aim to create a comprehensive financial wellness project specifically tailored for female entrepreneurs. This initiative is not just about improving individual financial literacy; it’s about fostering a community of informed women who can navigate the complexities of business finance with confidence and expertise.”

This news follows the launch of the GSB Capital division, which focuses on M&A, growth capital, direct investment, and a range of other advisory services. Financial services group GSB consists of GSB Wealth, GSB Private and GSB Capital.

Evelyn Partners has appointed Declan Kirby as a chartered financial planner in its Birmingham office.

Before joining Evelyn Partners, he worked for Henwood Court Financial Planning, providing financial planning and wealth management advice. Kirby focuses on working with senior executives, business owners and professionals, and is a fellow of the Personal Finance Society.

Blacktower Financial Management

Blacktower Financial Management has promoted Taylor Sallery to the role of US country manager. This move comes in recognition of Sallery’s significant contributions to Blacktower’s growth in the United States, the firm said.

Group managing director Gavin Pluck said: “I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Taylor on his recent promotion. Taylor’s dedication and hard work in managing and expanding our operations in this region have been invaluable.”

Progeny

Progeny has appointed Tom Wood as chief financial officer.

He brings 25 years of experience in financial services to the firm. Wood was chief restructuring and financial officer of the Co-Operative Bank between 2017 and 2019.

Prior to this, he was CEO and CFO of Shawbrook Group where he led the business through its successful IPO and entry into the FTSE 250.

GSB

GSB continued the expansion of its global wealth and advisory business with the hiring of Sam Goddard-Watts, Ruby Coogan and Mutale Grace Sitali. The trio will be based in Dubai.

Goddard-Watts has joined as an associate partner in the GSB Private team. He was previously a client director at Coutts, managing a portfolio of HNW clients.

Coogan has joined as group marketing manager with ten years of industry experience. Her most recent role was with Hoxton Capital Management as a brand and communications Manager.

Sitali has been hired as a client impact manager, and has a robust background in administration, customer service, and risk management.

Lombard Odier Investment Managers

Lombard Odier Investment Managers appointment of Aude Dhuivonroux as head of France.

Dhuivonroux joined LOIM in January 2022 from Allianz Global Investors, where she was a director in charge of business development for France and Belgium from 2019 to 2021. Prior to that, she spent eight years at Oyster Funds and seven years at Société Générale Asset Management.