Julius Baer will continue to service Brazilian clients out of other locations and as such, the Brazil International business remains unaffected. In Region Americas & Iberia, Julius Baer has presences in Mexico, Chile, Uruguay, Colombia, and Spain.

Julius Baer Brazil, with offices in São Paulo, Belo Horizonte, and Rio de Janeiro, is an independent wealth manager in Brazil focused on high and ultra-high-net-worth segments.

As of 30 November 2024, it had assets under management of BRL 61bn (CHF 9bn).

The transaction is expected to be approximately 30 bps accretive to Julius Baer’s CET1 capital ratio at close, based on a total cash consideration of BRL 615m (CHF 91m). Closing of the transaction is subject to customary regulatory approvals and expected in the first quarter of 2025.

Carlos Recoder, head Americas & Iberia, Julius Baer, said: “Following a thorough review of our domestic business in Brazil over the past 12 months, it was concluded that for the benefit of our clients it is important to preserve the multi-family office approach, while further enhancing investment capabilities and upgrading technology.

“The acquisition of our domestic Brazilian franchise by BTG, a leading domestic financial institution, makes this possible and allows to deliver a compelling and differentiated value proposition for our clients and employees.”

In a statement today (8 January) Henley said Singapore reclaims its crown as the most powerful passport in the world with visa-free access to 195 out of 227 destinations worldwide, leaving Japan in the runner-up spot with a score of 193 but still ahead of the rest after it regained visa-free access to neighbouring China for the first time since the Covid lockdowns.

Several EU member states — France, Germany, Italy, and Spain — drop two places in the ranking to 3rd position, and are joined by Finland and South Korea, which each lost a place over the past 12 months and now have access to 192 destinations with no prior visa required.

A seven-nation EU cohort, all with visa-free access to 191 destinations — Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden — share 4th place, while five countries — Belgium, New Zealand, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK — come in 5th with 190 visa-free destinations.

On the other end of the mobility spectrum, Afghanistan, unsurprisingly, remains firmly entrenched at the bottom of the Henley Passport Index, having lost visa-free access to a further two destinations over the past year, creating the largest mobility gap in the index’s 19-year history, with Singaporeans able to travel to 169 more destinations visa-free than Afghan passport holders.

Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, chairman of international investment migration advisory firm Henley & Partners and the inventor of the passport index concept, said: “The very notion of citizenship and its birthright lottery needs a fundamental rethink as temperatures rise, natural disasters become more frequent and severe, displacing communities and rendering their environments uninhabitable.

“Simultaneously, political instability and armed conflicts in various regions force countless people to flee their homes in search of safety and refuge. The need to introduce Free Global Cities to harness the untapped potential of displaced people and other migrants, transforming them from victims of circumstance into architects of their own futures has never been more pressing or apparent”.

The rest of the index’s Top 10 is largely dominated by European countries, except for Australia (6th place with 189 destinations), Canada (7th place with 188 destinations), the US (9th place with 186 destinations), and the UAE, the first and only Arab state to ever make it into the upper echelons of the rankings.

The UAE is one of the biggest climbers on the index over the past decade, having secured access to an additional 72 destinations since 2015, enabling it to climb 32 places to 10th spot with visa-free access to 185 destinations worldwide.

US and UK passports among the biggest fallers

Only 22 of the world’s 199 passports have fallen down the Henley Passport Index ranking over the past decade. Surprisingly, the US is the second-biggest faller between 2015 and 2025 after Venezuela, plummeting seven places from 2nd to its current 9th position.

Vanuatu is the third-biggest faller, losing six places from 48th to 54th position, followed by the British passport, which was top of the index in 2015 but now sits in 5th place. Completing the Top 5 losers list is Canada, which dropped three ranks over the past decade from 4th to its current 7th place.

In contrast, China is among the biggest climbers over the past decade, ascending from 94th place in 2015 to 60th in 2025, with its visa-free score increasing by 40 destinations in that time. And in terms of its openness to other nations, China has also risen on the Henley Openness Index, which ranks all 199 countries and territories worldwide according to the number of nationalities they permit entry to without a prior visa.

China granted visa-free access to a further 29 countries over the past year alone, and now sits in 80th position, granting visa-free entry to a total of 58 nations as the new year commences, compared to its rival America, which ranks 84th and allows just 46 other countries access without a prior visa.

Commenting in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2025 Q1, released today alongside the latest Henley Passport Index, Annie Pforzheimer, senior associate at Washington thinktank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the continued comparative decline of the US in terms of global mobility is no surprise: “Even before the advent of a second Trump presidency, American political trends had become notably inward-looking and isolationist. Even though US economic health relies heavily on immigration, tourism, and trade, voters during the 2024 presidential campaign were fed a narrative that America can (and should) stand alone.

“Ultimately, if tariffs and deportations are the Trump administration’s default policy tools, not only will the US continue to decline on the mobility index on a comparative basis, but it will probably do so in absolute terms as well. This trend in tandem with China’s greater openness will likely give rise to Asia’s greater soft power dominance worldwide.”

Dr. Tim Klatte, a partner in Grant Thornton China and an adjunct professor at Shanghai New York University and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, agrees, and adds that the upcoming second inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump will mark a turning point in US–China economic relations and, by extension, for the world economy. “The Trump-era trade wars will not only be viewed as bilateral disputes — they will serve as transformative events for the global economy.

“Disrupting trade flows, raising costs, and sowing uncertainty will require businesses, governments, and international institutions to adapt to a new reality. This strategy raises serious concerns about the fragmentation of the global economy and the potential for increased geopolitical tensions.

“Trump has not been shy about his foreign policy strategies, from Canada to China, and his direct approach will continue to present doubts in the confidence of the USA’s passport power moving forward.”

Americans are top applicants for second citizenships

US nationals currently constitute the single largest cohort of applicants for alternative residence and citizenship, accounting for a staggering 21% of all investment migration program applications received by Henley & Partners in 2024.

CEO Dr. Juerg Steffen says the firm has more American clients than the next four biggest nationalities — Turkish, Filipino, Indian, and Brits — combined. “Faced with unprecedented volatility, investors and wealthy families are adopting a strategy of geopolitical arbitrage to acquire additional residence and/or citizenship options to hedge against jurisdictional risk and leverage the differences in legal, economic, political, and social conditions across countries to optimize their personal, financial, and lifestyle outcomes.”

Looking ahead to 2025, projections by Henley & Partners and New World Wealth indicate an even greater surge in millionaire migration worldwide, with 142,000 high-net-worth individuals with liquid investable wealth of USD 1 million or more expected to relocate and seek new horizons.

Dr. Steffen said: “this represents the most significant wealth migration wave ever documented and reflects fundamental changes in how affluent individuals are mitigating risks and creating opportunities in an increasingly unstable and polarized world”.

Political risk insurance

Commenting in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2025 Q1, Prof. Peter J. Spiro of Temple University Law School in Philadelphia and a leading expert on dual citizenship said the Trump reprise magnifies another element of value for alternative residence or citizenship rights: political risk insurance.

“This time around, the stakes are higher. During the first Trump administration, legacy political guardrails were still in place. Now, many are gone. There is a sense that what Trump wants, Trump will be able to get. His political agenda is mercurial, to say the least, and political uncertainty is the result. Americans can no longer take stability for granted. Trump can be fickle with outsiders, too.

“It is almost certain that he will resurrect the infamous “travel ban”, which he put in place a week after he first took office, early in the new administration. The ban precluded targeted nationals from securing permanent residence in the USA as well as a range of temporary-stay visas. But the bans did not apply to citizens of targeted states if they held an additional citizenship of a non-targeted state. The carve-out for dual citizens made sense.”

Visa racism: Africans twice as likely to be rejected for Schengen visas

In exclusive new research conducted for Henley & Partners and published in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2025 Q1, Prof. Mehari Taddele Maru of the School of Transnational Governance and the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute and of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, compared Schengen visa rejection rates for African applicants to those from other regions.

“My latest research compares the 10 countries facing the highest Schengen visa rejection rates and reveals that while globally only one in six applications is rejected, one in two African applicants is rejected. In 2023, African countries accounted for just 2.8% of global applications out of a total of over 10 million worldwide, yet half of their applications were rejected. Even more concerning is that this trend has worsened over the past decade, with rejection rates more than doubling during this period.”

The research shows that among the top 10 countries facing the highest Schengen visa rejection rates, six are in Africa. Comoros fares the worst with a 61.3% rejection rate, followed by Guinea-Bissau at 51%, Ghana at 47.5%, Mali at 46.1%, Sudan at 42.3%, and Senegal at 41.2%. Three Asian countries and a European country complete the most-rejected list: Pakistan with 49.6%, Syria with 46%, and Bangladesh with 43.3%. The contrast becomes particularly stark when comparing Africa with Asia and global rates. Despite African countries submitting only half as many applications as Asian countries, African applicants were twice as likely to be rejected.

Prof. Maru said this pattern suggests that the variation in rejection rates between regions and nationalities extends beyond purely economic factors. “This growing disparity in visa rejection rates contributes to a broader pattern of global mobility inequality. As a result, African citizens find themselves at the bottom of the mobility ladder, which significantly limits their access to international economic opportunities. In short, the poorest individuals face the greatest difficulties when seeking to travel or move to more prosperous countries. I would argue that weak economies and discriminatory policies based on identity and culture explain the high rate of rejection for African Schengen visa applicants.”

Key travel trends in 2025: ETA and ETIAS

The world of travel is preparing itself for a digital overhaul in 2025. This year marks a pivotal uplift in digital border control, from the UK’s ETA expansions to the long-anticipated European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS). The UK has been rolling out its ETA system in phases. Initially open to Gulf Cooperation Council nationals in February 2024, the scheme extends to eligible non-European travelers this month (January 2025), including six million citizens from Australia, Canada, and the US. Eligible Europeans can apply from 5 March 2025 and will need an ETA to travel to the UK from 2 April 2025.

Similarly, Europe’s ETIAS, which has been delayed multiple times, is now expected to commence in May 2025. Those with a valid ETIAS authorization can enter 30 European countries as often as they want for short-term stays, normally for up to 90 days in any 180-day period.

Nick Careen, senior vice president, operation, safety and security at IATA, said the organization and its members are currently trialing a pioneering project to deliver a fully digital air travel experience. “The transition to digital travel is more than just a technological upgrade — it’s a paradigm shift. By leveraging digital identity and biometrics, the aviation industry can deliver a level of efficiency and personalization that was previously unimaginable. But the impact goes beyond airports. A seamless travel experience could strengthen global connectivity, boost tourism, and support economic growth.”

Do take a look at Investment International‘s top stories from last year to get a retrospective flavour of some of the big themes, and we of course look forward to providing you with many new insights in 2025 – no doubt with a few twists and turns – starting with our first bulletin this January!

Top stories

FCA cancels regulatory permission of Premier League football club Wolves

Experts react to surprise UK pensions bill in today’s King’s speech

UK residents barred from using QROPS for higher tax-free cash in Budget 2024

Titan Wealth to acquire Dubai headquartered wealth manager AHR Group

Former Intrinsic founder and Allied Dunbar chair Sandy Leitch passes away

Click here to read our sister brand Investment International‘s top stories of 2024.

Among the highlights we share a few snippets from Investment International and International Adviser events in 2024 featuring our II Latin America Forum 2024 in Montevideo, Uruguay our II Awards 2024 VIP screening in London, our UK and European flagship event II Connect 2024 in London and our II Middle East Forum 2024 event in Dubai.

We also feature a number of our video interview highlights taken from interviews with some of the industry’s biggest names, throughout the year including the Fourth Annual II Leadership Forum 2024 which was beamed from our TV studio to our global audience

Click here to view the video or on the image below

We look forward to bringing you more great events, videos and podcasts from our team at Investment International and our sister title International Adviser into 2025 and beyond.

There is strong empirical evidence that higher US rates and the associated strengthening of the US dollar lead to a tightening in global financial conditions and a decline in cross-border and dollar lending. The sudden reversal of capital flows has repeatedly caused financial crises in EMs. EM external borrowers, both public and private, were usually caught with a depreciating local currency and a weaker economy, limiting their ability to repay their debt in foreign currency.

EM economies have evolved over the years, however. Greater domestic financial market depth as well as increased access and efficiency have allowed major EMs to overcome the so-called ‘original sin’, or a country’s inability to borrow from abroad in its own currency. As a result, they have become less sensitive to US rates and the US dollar as local market borrowing acts as a cushion for these EM borrowers.

Not every EM borrower can borrow in his own currency, however. Smaller firms and lower-income countries with less developed capital markets continue to rely on external borrowing in hard currency. Defaults and financial distress among frontier borrowers are a testament that high US rates are still a binding constraint for less-developed EMs.

Emerging markets resilience

During the latest bout of US rate increases over the last two years, borrowers in major EMs have been remarkably resilient. On the corporate side, there was a clear shift towards local currency issuance. India, Thailand and Brazil accounted for more than two thirds of all local-currency corporate bond issuance since 2022 in EM, according to an International Finance Corporation (IFC) study. The trend towards local currency borrowing was already apparent among Asian corporates even before the pandemic.

The new borrowing pattern has partly shielded these firms from a tightening of global financial conditions. It is therefore not surprising that EM hard currency bond issuance has fallen significantly in the last two years. Issuance picked up again in September when the Fed started its rate-cut cycle.

Default data from S&P indeed suggest that EM corporates have weathered the tightening of global financial conditions in the last two years very well, especially when compared to the 1990s and the global financial crisis period. There has been no default among EM investment-grade bonds since 2016. More recently, for speculative grade bonds, the default rate in EM only exceeded that of global high-yield bonds in 2022.

In 2023, the EM corporate bond default rate at 2.1% was much lower than global high yield’s default rate at 3.7%. The overall default rate of 1% in EM (against 1.9% in global bonds) in 2023 is a good evidence of EM resilience.
Do we expect EM firms to continue to be robust? This will depend on the health of EM firms and the global macro-outlook. Currently, larger EM firms appear financially healthy.

The IFC study, which covers publicly traded companies in EM, finds that interest coverage ratios have returned to a level comparable to the pre-pandemic level despite higher interest payments as a share of total debt. Another study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that the share of EM corporate debt with an interest coverage ratio below one has grown over the last two years, implying that there is a growing pocket of firms that are struggling.

The increase is lower for EMs outside China, suggesting that Chinese real estate debt may account for some of the increase. At the aggregate level, EM financial leverage has increased with corporate debt as a share of GDP rising since 2019 in most EMs. Higher debt could make them more vulnerable to external shocks.

A benign global backdrop

While the global backdrop continues to be supportive of EM corporates, there are a number of risks on the horizon. A soft landing in the US (and falling rates), a slight improvement in Europe, and the policy pivot in China are positive for EM. Of course, the elephant in the room is a potential new trade war, to the detriment of global growth and corporate profitability. EMs in particular are vulnerable to tariffs as they usually depend more on trade to grow.

Higher tariffs would add to input costs and reduce firm profitability. The IMF’s recent simulation suggests that a global trade war could lead to a higher share of debt with the interest coverage (ICR) ratio below one.

Indeed, not all EM firms will be affected equally: China, Mexican and Asian manufacturers (Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam) would be impacted the most by a new global trade war, while commodity producers in Latin America are less affected. Tradeable sectors will be more affected than non-tradeable sectors or services sectors.

By Mali Chivakul, emerging markets economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management